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BEO1106 Business Statistics

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BEO1106 Business Statistics

Question

Answered

Task:

Requirement

You are required to collect an individualised set (20 observations) of weather time series data using the last three digit of your student ID and conduct time series analyses by using Excel spreadsheet. Copy and paste the Excel results into the corresponding space provided in the Answer Sheet for Case Study II. Submit the Answer Sheet for Case Study II along with the Excel spreadsheet to the Case Study II assignment Dropbox before Session 11.

Your name and Student ID must be included in the file names
 
Task 1
 
Using Excel, smooth your maximum temperature time series (Y) data by

1. Three point moving average MA(3) and 2. Exponentially smoothed (Ei) using w = 0.6. Present the three series (Y, MA(3) and Ei) in a table.

Task 2
 
Using the three series of data in Task 1, plot all three series in one graph.

Note: the title of the graph, the title of axes, the legend and the neat presentation of the graph will be accounted for 0.5 mark each.

Task 3

Obtain a regression equation from the temperature time series data. Present the Excel regression output. Using the time trend regression equation to forecast the maximum temperature of your selected month for 20 years and then extend the forecast from 21st to the 25th years.

Task 4

Calculate the MAD1 for the exponential forecast and the MAD2 for the time trend forecast. Compare them and comment on which time series model is a better model for forecasting the weather data.

Task 5

Using the first observation of your data as the base point, calculate the simple index for your data series. Comment on the index number for the 10th year in your data.  

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